Piggy2026 Freelancer Tax Set-Aside Study 8,721 scenarios
Original modeled estimates of how much freelancers should set aside — across income, filing status, and all 50 states + DC. Citeable findings and a free CSV.
Modeled educational estimates — not a survey, not filing software, and not tax advice. Every dollar runs through PiggyMath’s live freelancerTaxEstimate engine (same stack as the Freelancer Tax Calculator). Local taxes, AMT, and NIIT are omitted. Rows tagged multi-bracket approx or coarse approx use approximate state schedules.
Key findings (press-ready)
- “Set aside 30%” overshoots most of the grid: 81.7% of scenarios land under 30% of net profit.
- State gap at $100k (Single): Alaska $22,365 (22.4%) vs Oregon $30,177 (30.2%) — $7,812 difference.
- Filing status at $100k (TX, no state tax): Single 22.4% · MFJ 19.5% · HoH 20.4%.
- QBI effect (federal-only, Single, TX): up to 4.3 percentage points lower set-aside near $235,000 profit before §199A wage-limit phase-in bites (no W-2 wages modeled).
- Income bands: median set-aside rises from 19.2% ($20k–$50k) to 29% ($200k–$300k).
| Income band | Scenarios | Median set-aside | Mean | Share under 30% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20k–$50k | 1,071 | 19.2% | 19.3% | 100% |
| $50k–$100k | 1,683 | 23.1% | 22.8% | 99.9% |
| $100k–$150k | 1,683 | 25.3% | 25.5% | 96.4% |
| $150k–$200k | 1,683 | 27.6% | 27.5% | 77.9% |
| $200k–$300k | 3,213 | 29% | 28.9% | 61.6% |
| Filing status | Scenarios | Median | Mean | P10–P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single | 2,907 | 28.7% | 28% | 21.9% – 33.1% |
| Married filing jointly | 2,907 | 24.4% | 23.6% | 18.8% – 27.2% |
| Head of household | 2,907 | 26.4% | 26% | 20% – 31% |
Methodology
node tools/tax_study_2026.mjs · see also How we check our math- Grid: net profit $20,000–$300,000 step $5,000 (57) × Single / MFJ / HoH (3) × 50 states + DC (51) = 8,721 rows.
- Engine: primary math from
assets/app.jsfreelancerTaxEstimate(SE tax + federal income tax + §199A + state viaapproxStateTax). - Dual-impl: federal core gated by
tools/dual_impl_federal_tax.mjs(±$1); state brackets spot-checked bytools/dual_impl_state_tax.mjs. - Included: Schedule SE (92.35% factor, SS wage base $184,500, Additional Medicare), standard deduction, QBI (non-SSTB, $0 W-2 / $0 UBIA), state income tax schedules where modeled.
- Excluded: local income taxes, itemizing, credits (CTC etc.), retirement/SE-health ATL deductions, AMT, NIIT, payroll/franchise fees.
- Safe harbor columns: 90% of current-year modeled tax; 100%/110% prior-year columns assume prior-year tax equals this year’s model (illustrative only).
- Constants: 2026 tax constants (Rev. Proc. 2025-32 / SSA wage base).
How to cite
Suggested citation line (copy/paste):
PiggyMath Editorial Desk. “2026 Freelancer Tax Set-Aside Study.” PiggyMath, 13 Aug. 2026, https://piggymath.com/freelancer-tax-set-aside-study-2026/. Modeled educational estimates (8,721 scenarios; income × filing status × state).
Ready-to-quote findings
- Across 8,721 modeled scenarios, the median set-aside was 26% of net profit (mean 25.9%). A flat “set aside 30%” rule overshoots in 81.7% of scenarios.
- At $100,000 net profit (Single), modeled total tax ranged from Alaska $22,365 (22.4%) to Oregon $30,177 (30.2%) — a $7,812 gap driven by state income tax.
- QBI (§199A) cut the modeled federal-only set-aside by up to 4.3 percentage points near $235,000 profit (Single, no state tax); the benefit shrinks once taxable income enters the §199A phase-out (threshold $201,750 Single / HoH).
- At $100,000 net profit in a no-income-tax state (TX), modeled set-aside was 22.4% Single, 19.5% MFJ, and 20.4% Head of household — filing status alone moves the planning percent.
- By income band (all states & statuses), median set-aside rose from 19.2% in $20k–$50k to 29% in $200k–$300k.
Always label these as modeled estimates and link the canonical URL above. Attribution: Source: PiggyMath 2026 Freelancer Tax Study.
What this study is (and isn’t)
This is an original PiggyMath data product: we ran a designed grid through the same engines powering the Freelancer Tax Calculator and published every row. It is not a poll of freelancers and not a substitute for a return. For a shorter federal-only Single table, see set-aside by income band.
How to use the CSV
Filter by filing_status, state_code, or net_profit_usd. Prefer rows with state_quality of exact or exact_brackets when quoting a specific state. Use set_aside_pct for planning copy; use safe_harbor_* columns only with the illustrative caveat in the methodology.